Overbuilding in Assisted Living – Part 2

Aren’t we overbuilding Assisted Living facilities? 

When we talk about overbuilding, You should know that there’s a lot of inventory coming and there is a reason for that.  The need is HUGE and the opportunity is incredible. In our classes, one of the common questions we get is, “five years from now are we really going to need this?” Let me help you with some math right now. There are 77 million Baby Boomers so let’s break that down. There are 10,000 people a day turning 65, but more importantly, over 4,000 a day are turning 85. That is 4,000 day X 30 days in a month = 120,000 a month and 1,400,000 people every single year are turning 85 years old. THERE ARE ABOUT 1,400,000 ASSISTED LIVING BEDS IN TOTAL IN THE US TODAY. 

But how many of those will really need help with their ADLs? 

1.4 million people turning 85 every single year.  In five years that’s 7 million people. Now not all of them are going to need assisted living and they are not going to live forever either. But out of 7 million, statistics will show that about 30% will need assistance with their activities of daily living for an average of three and a half years. So over 2,000,000 of these “super seniors” will need what we offer in the next five years. 

We need to plan for the future in Assisted Living. 

Imagine seeing a chart for Google, Apple, Bitcoin, or anything 10 years prior to when it hit its peak. That’s what we’re seeing right now with assisted living. The oldest Baby Boomers are only 72 years old. Most of them are not in assisted living. Their parents are or were there but they are 10 years away from needing it themselves.  Knowing that is like seeing a silver tsunami of seniors coming 10 years in advance. So right now this business is good and it’s just getting better and better and better. And for those of us who put ourselves in a position, we’re certainly at the right place at the right time. We are going to profit and see the benefit. I know that there are people that get on board early and position themselves for maximum success.  And then there are those who wait and lag to the end. Those of us that are getting involved right now are on the cutting edge. So if you want to be at the right place at the right time, Timing is the key and I am not concerned with where we are at in the market and the need that is coming. 

Do the seniors really want Assisted Living though? 

Most people would rather live in a “home” where the care is five residents to one caregiver, where the food is fresh and it’s coming from a kitchen that’s 25 feet away. Where they can live in a room, maybe a private room, but live in a home. The reality is they are looking for friends and companionship. They’re aging and they are coming and we have an opportunity to take advantage of providing this home for them, to help and service and in a way where we can make a huge amount of money.  The need is only going to going to increase. People aren’t going to kick mom and dad out just to save a few dollars. They love mom. They love dad. And they know they need to be taken care of. 

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